Medium-term estimation of seismic risks of territories based on probabilistic model of Poisson distribution

Abstract:

Medium-term estimation of seismic risks of various territories is of great importance for planning and taking the measures on reduction of damages and losses caused by earthquake disasters. Such estimations are demanded by government agencies and organizations managing the emergency situations.

In the course of presentation, participants will be familiarized with the achievements, approaches and methods used in Uzbekistan for estimation of seismic risks for long-term, medium-term and short-term periods and for earthquake early warning.

Probabilistic method based on model of Poisson distribution is the one of the ways used in Uzbekistan to estimate the earthquake risks of the territories for medium-term. Application of this method enables to obtain the map of the number of expected ground shakes for the given range of earthquake intensities and for the various length of future time intervals. The method also gives the map of confidence intervals for the number of expected ground shakes. Based on the statistical tests, the developed methodology evaluates the compliance of the accepted model with the structure of actual data.

During the report, the rationale and the theoretical fundamentals of probabilistic model based on Poisson distribution will be presented. As an example of the use of the model, the results of application of the method to several territories of Black Sea region will be shown.